Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Seasonal Intra-Annual Fluctuations in Main Convertible Currency Exchange Rates in the Republic of Armenia (2021–2025)

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to examine the seasonal fluctuations of major convertible currency exchange rates on a quarterly basis and to provide a statistical estimation of the results. Officially published data from the Statistical Committee were used in the analysis. To assess the seasonal fluctuations of the primary convertible currencies in the Republic of Armenia, seasonal indices and the additive seasonal model were applied. According to the seasonal indices, during the studied years, the exchange rates of the US dollar and the Russian ruble generally increased in the first and second quarters. The euro exchange rate showed an increase specifically in the first quarter. From 2021 to 2024, the trend analysis revealed a quarterly decrease in exchange rates: the US dollar declined by 9.4 AMD, the euro by 13.78 AMD, and the Russian ruble by 0.24 AMD.